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S&P 500 Must End The Week Above This Annual Pivot Level To Avoid Having A Negative Chart


(Photo Illustration by Omar Marques)

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) traded as low as 4,370 on April 18 but closed above its annual pivot at 4,383. The index traded as high as 4,512 on April 21 versus the 200-day simple moving average at 4,497. The low on April 21 was 4,384, a point above the annual pivot. The April 21 close was below the 50-day simple moving average at 4,412.

The only key level that the S&P 500 is above: the annual pivot at 4,383. The year-to-date low is 4,115, which was set on February 24.

A weekly close below the five-week modified moving average at 4,438 will be a warning that the weekly chart will end April negative.

At the April 21 close of 4,393.66 the S&P 500 is down 7.8% year-to-date but it’s 6.8% above its February 24 low of 4,114.65. It’s also 8.8% below its January 4 high of 4,818.62.

The Dai DAI ly Chart for SPX

Daily Chart for the S&P 500

Courtesy of Refinitiv Xenith.

The daily chart for the S&P 500 shows a strong uptrend from the October 30, 2021 low of 3,234 to the high of 4,818 set on January 4. This was a gain of 48.9%. This bull market tracked the 50-day simple moving average higher as 52 weeks ago the pattern was in a golden cross with the 50-day above the 200-day.

The 50-day SMA began to trend lower on January 18 and the 200-day SMA was first tested on January 21. The 200-day SMA has been a magnet since then. The 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day on March 15.

We now show a trading range between the February 24 low of 4,115 and the March 29 high of 4,637. The 50-day and 200-day SMAs are 4,413 and 4,497, respectively. The S&P 500 is below both these levels as a warning.

The horizontal lines in the chart from high to low are the monthly risky level at 4,653, the semiannual pivot at 4,456 and the annual pivot at 4,383. This makes 4,383 the key level to hold. There are no key levels until the February 24 low of 4,115.

The decline from 4,818 on January 4 to 4,115 on February 24 was a correction of 14.5%.

The Weekly Chart for SPX

Weekly Chart for the S&P 500

Courtesy of Refintiv Xenith.

The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is neutral with the index below its five-week modified moving average at 4,438. The horizontal lines on the chart are the annual pivot at 4,383 and the February 24 low of 4,115. The 200-week simple moving average or “reversion to the mean” is at 3,455.

The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading is rising at 56.68, which keeps the chart neutral. If the S&P 500 stays below its five-week MMA and breaks below 4,383, the weekly chart will become negative.

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